Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is Wrong

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, announces conclusions and directives that are not in the realm of reality. Ending the use of coal by 2040 and eliminating cars by 2050 is not going to happen. Future generations will have to deal with the damage caused by climate change because people are just human. A dead crow is left on road to be crushed into obliteration. No one stops to picks it up and throws it into the bushes. No improvement will be made until most people accept that Climate change is real.

Home Arguments Software Resources Comments Consensus Project Translations About Donate TwitterFacebookYouTubePinterestRSS PostsRSS CommentsEmail Subscribe Climate's changed sun bad consensus cooling Models unreliable Temp record unreliable Animals plants adapt hasn't warmed 998 Antarctica gaining ice View Arguments Username Password Keep logged New? Register Forgot password? Latest Posts Archives Climate Hustle IPCC global surface warming projections accurate science Global surface temperature measurements range IPCC projections. Climate Myth IPCC global warming projections wrong Yet leaked report extraordinary concession past years, recorded world temperatures increased quarter rate IPCC claimed published last assessment 2007. Back then, observed warming years 990-2005 taken place rate 0.2C per decade, predicted would continue 20 years, basis forecasts computer climate models. report observed warming recent years 2012 0.05C per decade computer predictions." (David Rose) figure 2013 Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) report compares global surface warming projections 990, 995, 2001, 2007 IPCC reports temperature measurements. IPCC AR5 Figure .4. Solid lines squares represent measured average global surface temperature changes NAS (blue).

NO (yellow), UK Hadley Centre (green). colored shading shows projected range surface warming IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR; yellow), Second (SAR; green), Third (TAR; blue), Fourth (AR4; red). IPCC AR5 Figure .4. Solid lines squares represent measured average global surface temperature changes NAS (blue), NO (yellow), UK Hadley Centre (green). colored shading shows projected range surface warming IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR; yellow), Second (SAR; green), Third (TAR; blue), Fourth (AR4; red). 990, global surface temperatures warmed rate 0.15°C per decade, range model projections 0.10 0.35°C per decade. IPCC notes. global climate models generally simulate global temperatures compare observations climate timescales ... 990–2012 data shown consistent [1990 IPCC report] projections, consistent zero trend 990 ... trend globally-averaged surface temperatures falls range previous IPCC projections. Naysayers? weeks months leading publication final 2013 IPCC report, flood opinion articles blogs mainstream media claiming models used IPCC dramatically over-predicted global warming thus failure.

This narrative clearly conflicts IPCC model-data comparison figure shown above, what's going on? mistaken climate contrarian articles suffered combination errors. ) Publicizing flawed draft IPCC model-data comparison figure Late last year, early draft IPCC report leaked, including draft version figure shown above. version graph flaws, including significant immediately noted statistician climate blogger Tamino. flaw this: series (both projections observations) aligned 990. observations include random year-to-year fluctuations, whereas projections average multiple models averages ... projections aligned value due existing trend observations 990. Aligning projections single extra-hot year projections seem hot, observations cool comparison. draft version IPCC figure, simply visual illusion surface temperature data appeared warming less slowly model projections, measured temperature trend fell range model simulations. Obviously mistake subsequently corrected. This illustrates bad idea publicize material draft form, definition work progress. 2) Ignoring range model simulations single model simulates possible future climate outcome. reality, infinite number possible outcomes, depending various factors greenhouse gas emissions natural climate variability change. This climate modelers predictions; projections, say scenario 'x', climate change 'y' fashion.

shaded regions IPCC figure represent range outcomes individual climate model simulations. IPCC illustrates "multi-model mean," averages together individual model simulation runs. This average easy comparison observational data; however, there's believe climate follow average path, especially short-term. natural factors act amplify human-caused global surface warming, 990s, climate likely warm faster model average short-term. natural factors act dampen global surface warming, 2000s, climate likely warm slowly model average. model simulations averaged together, random natural variability individual model runs cancel out, steady human-caused global warming trend remains left over. reality climate behaves single model simulation run, average model runs. This important retain shaded range individual model runs. 3) Cherry Picking claims IPCC models failed based surface temperature changes past years (1998–2012). During period, temperatures risen 50 percent slowly multi-model average, remained range individual model simulation runs. However, 998 represented abnormally hot year Earth's surface due strongest El Niño events.

20th century. Thus represents poor choice starting date analyze surface warming trend (selectively choosing convenient start and/or points known 'cherry picking'). For example, select different 5-year period, 992–2006, surface warming trend nearly 50 percent faster multi-model average, statistician Tamino helpfully illustrates figure below. Fast warming trend 992–2006, slow warming trend 997–2012. Global surface temperature data 975–2012 NAS linear trend (black), trends 992–2006 (red) 998–2012 (blue). short, climate contrarians declaring global surface warming accelerating control 2006, business declaring global surface warming 'paused' 2013. Both statements equally wrong, based cherry picking noisy short-term data. IPCC models accurate. For 992–2006, natural variability climate amplified human-caused global surface warming, dampened surface warming 997–2012. Over full period, overall warming rate remained range IPCC model projections, 2013 IPCC report notes.

long-term climate model simulations show trend global-mean surface temperature 951 2012 agrees observed trend (very confidence). are, however, differences simulated observed trends periods short years (e.g., 998 2012). IPCC notes climate models accurately simulated trends extreme cold heat, large-scale precipitation pattern changes, ocean heat content (where global warming goes). Models better simulate Arctic sea ice decline, previously dramatically underestimated. all, IPCC models impressive job accurately representing projecting changes global climate, contrary contrarian claims. fact, IPCC global surface warming projections performed better predictions climate contrarians. important remember weather predictions climate predictions different. harder predict weather further future. With climate predictions, short-term variability (like unpredictable ocean cycles) predictions difficult. actually better predicting climate changes several decades future, time short-term fluctuations average out. That's climate models hard time predicting changes 0–15 years, predictions several decades future, IPCC illustrates.

This news, climate change, long-term changes worried about: IPCC surface temperature change projections IPCC AR5 projected global average surface temperature changes emissions scenario (RCP8.5; red) emissions scenario (RCP2.6; blue). Intermediate rebuttal written dana1981 Update July 2015: Here related lecture-video Denial101x Making Sense Climate Science Denial Last updated July 2015 pattimer. View Archives Printable Version | Offline PDF Version | Link page Comments Comments : sailing 01:57 AM September, 2017 Nice work! would convincing record temperatures 2014, 2015, 2016 plotted. Post Comment Political, off-topic ad hominem comments deleted. Comments Policy. logged post comment. Login left margin new, register here. © copyright 2018 if john if cook if home if links if translations if about if us if contact us
Coral reef pollution

Australian Fish Oil is Poison!

While glucosamine has priced itself out of reach of the average consumer, sales of fish oil are still booming. Just about everyone you bump into is on it. The problem is the world-wide market is not sufficiently policed to ensure a healthy product.
Cut prices for this popular addition to diet is a feature of the market. But are we paying the price? Tests show that the majority of packaged fish oil is contaminated and labels stated omega-3 fatty acid at much higher levels than reality. In other words suppliers are lying. Less than 10 per cent of tested sealed fish oil had the printed omega-3 fatty acid level.

Some capsules are downright dangerous to take. In 92 per cent of tested packages the omega-3 fatty acid had oxidised - that is "gone off". What is more frightening is that most fish oil comes from two first world countries, namely, Australia and New Zealand. What happened to the philosophy of only exporting the best? This is disgraceful.

International law is being broken here and the Australian government must do something about it. immediately. Our export reputation depends on stopping sales straight away. One poisoning out there will irreparably damage Australia's economy, ruining all the good work done. Just remember: one bad apple spoils the whole barrel.
Health by Ty Buchanan
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     Australian Blog                         

Oil Found Off Australia's North West Coast

There has always been a belief that Australia's future lies in finding a mineral that is plentiful in the north west of the country. Till now this has not been achieved. Everyone knows that Western Australia is full of iron ore so this is not what they are looking for.

Drilling for many years has just made holes in the ground. Companies have gone over ground already explored before. This is how the latest find was made. There is oil there and in vast quantities. Apache Corp. has made the announcement that was greeted with surprise by some people.

Apache was searching for gas when it made the discovery. Considering Australia's oil production has fallen to its lowest level for forty years this can only be good news.

Income to Western Australia from iron ore has declined due to a fall in Chinese demand. The price for iron ore is down by a third since January. Australia is producing far more ore than it can sell. Coal is not doing well either.

The oil found by Apache is of very high quality so a high price is expected for it when it eventually comes on line. Unfortunately, it could be some time before this happens. Normally developing a new oil field takes decades.
Economics by Ty Buchanan
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     Australian Blog                         

Revolutionary Mineral Drill Rig Announced

Drilling techniques in industry have not changed for decades. Oil rigs are built in he same old way. Now something has come along that will improve drilling enormously. The Deep Exploration Technologies Cooperative Research Centre based in Adelaide has announced a new type of drill. It is constructed with coiled tubing.

Costs will fall dramatically as drilling is faster.  Australia's mines are mostly over 30 years old. New mines have to be established. We can only rely on the old mines for another 20 years.

No longer is it necessary to keep stopping to add a new drilling section. The new drill is a continuous coil of tubing. Being smaller and lighter transportation is easy. The motor is at the bottom of the shaft, not at the top. The tubing no longer twists during drilling. Any twisting will occur in the other direction as the motor pulls the tubing around.

Less drilling power is needed as the tubing is being pulled around in already drilled space. A lot of torque was lost with the old system as the engine had to force the whole length of the drill around. Drilling will continue with fewer drill breakages. Thus, downtime will be reduced.
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Technology by Ty Buchanan
     Australian Blog                         

Coal and Oil Production Brings Radioactive Sludge to the Surface

It seems it is not only nuclear power that pollutes the earth with radioactive substances. For centuries coal and oil production has brought thousands of tons of polluted material from beneath the planet to the surface. Further processing concentrates it even more.  Apparently the sludge is left lying around and is not isolated from the population. For every barrel of oil pumped up into storage, ten barrels of polluted water is dragged up as well. Uranium and radium occur naturally below ground. In the US plastic pipes used in the production process were given to kindergartens to make playground equipment.

The coal and oil industry has known for many years about the problem but has kept very quiet about it. While nuclear power stations are closely monitored, limits are set high for coal and oil which allows producers to pollute at will. Tests for radioactivity on dumps of sludge give readings 700 times higher than clean areas.

With new housing estates being built on top of discarded polluted sludge it is only a matter of time before a disaster takes place. When the general population finds out the truth about this there will be street protests across the globe.
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Environment by Ty Buchanan
     Australian Blog                         

No-Car Future Is the Only Sustainable Option

The National Sustainability Council presented its long awaited report called the Sustainable Australia 2013: Conversations with the Future. This is the first of a series of biennial papers to advise the government about the state of the economy vis-a-vis the environment.

Full of optimism, the newly founded council said the future looked bright if we changed to building sustainable communities. However, the type of community needed is far more radical than envisaged by the council. Despite Australia having many of the most livable cities in the world we need to start planning immediately for the kind of balanced society of the future.

Oil will not be around forever and coal is too polluting to be used at such high rates. This means individuals driving around in five seater cars will not be possible. Electricity use is skyrocketing with Internet cloud servers and hungry mobiles gobbling up tonnes of coal and oil in power stations. Future cities will have to be designed with houses laid out in a manner that allows public transport to easily be used to get to work. Little is said about this now, but it will be in the future.

Somehow workers will have to be able to get from side roads to main roads where buses or vehicles on rails can travel. This will involve many more stops than at present and it will take longer to get to places of employment. We could see the return of bicycles or low-powered slow speed electric vehicles.

A place without car ownership will be an odd place to people of the current era. Nonetheless, it will have to happen eventually. Modern cities are car dependent. If an economic crisis stops the flow of oil these cities will die.
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Australian Blog                         

Australia's Economy Would "Stop" if Oil Imports Ceased

Some countries are moving toward other fuels such as coal gas. However, public opinion about it polluting the environment could bring an end to the trend of companies running roughshod over properties belonging to others. The search is driven by potential profit not for any long-term goal.

People are complacent. Australia is dependent on fuel from mainly Middle Eastern countries. If a major conflagration occurred there the Australian economy would come to a standstill in a matter of weeks. Rationing would have to be introduced immediately. Health and food would be the main priorities. Distribution would be hit hard as it uses most of the oil imported, apart from private use of motor vehicles.

Australia does not keep an oil reserve. Even though some countries have reserves. It would put off the economic hit for a few months. What is shocking is that even dried food in this country would last only nine days.

Using solar power for transport is not possible. If such a scenario did happen there would be a quick move to other resources like using sunlight to turn algae into a usable oil substitute. It has been calculated that algae would produce a minimum of 60 tonnes of oil from each hectare of pond surface. Streamlined systems could increase yield to over 600 tonnes.

At the moment there is no need to "manufacture" oil from algae. Natural oil remains the cheapest form of energy. Many universities are working on algae. Like everything else in this world new opportunities are only taken when it becomes necessary. Personally, I believe that there are solutions to a cut in oil supplies. Obviously there would be a world economic downturn, but Man has survived due to adaptation to changing environments. An oil crisis would be no different.
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Australian Blog                        

Fish Oil Prevents Premature Birth

Over recent years there has been a host of controversial claims about fish oil, calcium and glucosamine. The questions are do these supplements do any good and do they all have to be taken? Some doctors say take them and other GPs say claims about them are nonsense.
Fish oil stops premature birth
Some tests have been done. It has still not been proven that taking calcium prevents deterioration of bones in old age. And there is no proof that glucosamine gets into joints thus reducing pain. Tests on fish oil offer some hope of benefit.

During research into omega 3 (which is in fish oil) on young children a potential benefit came to light. It seems that premature birth is delayed when fish oil is taken. Omega 3 prolongs pregnancy. Subjects who took the supplement also had larger babies. Their birth date was later than predicted. Of course, this brings up another question: Are heavier babies healthier? As the cause of premature birth is unknown perhaps this benefit overrides the perceived consequences of larger babies.
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Australian Blog                        

The Impact of Peak Oil

It seems that we have pushed the peak oil period further forward by obtaining coal seam gas from just about everywhere we look. Fracking does damage the environment and the current freedom for the gas companies could be curtailed.

When peak oil is reached the impact on Australia's rural areas will be significant. Supplies of oil will fall and prices for the scarce commodity will rise. Farmers use advanced machinery to sow, plant and harvest food crops. If governments set priorities then agriculture will have to be given precedence over private use. Transport will be next in line.

There are two aspects of transport. Movement of food is very important, but as people will not be able to freely use their cars they will opt for public transport to get to their places of employment.

People will have to live with limited mobility as they did in the days of the horse and buggy. A day out will be a luxury. Economies will go into recession as trade slows down. Perhaps people will turn to other sources of energy like wood. This will not be sustainable. Stricter and clearer laws will be needed to control activities. Rationing will not be a choice. It will be absolutely necessary.

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Australian Blog                        

Nullarbor Created by Many Small Rivers

The Nullarbor plain in the central-southern part of Australia is one of the driest regions on Earth. It is called the Ceduna Delta. The Murray-Darling further to the east is the largest river system extant today. It is difficult to accept that the Nullarbor was created by many small rivers flowing southward into the ocean. These rivers flowed very fast cutting through hills which were formed by the land rising between Australia and Antarctica. Ultimately, sediment was deposited in the drying riverbeds.

Analysis of sediment from drillings in the delta showed rivers flowed there 80 million years ago. Sources of gas and oil have been identified which could be tapped in the future. The Ceduna Delta is as large as the Niger Delta in Africa. It contains half a million cubic kilometers of sedimentary sandstome and shales. Hydrocarbon reserves are already being exploited in the Niger Delta.

Because the "destination" of the rivers was close to the Great Australian Bight large amounts of other minerals such as zircon are also located there. It seems predictions about carbon fuels running out are not well founded. Pollution of the planet will continue into the near future irrespective of the damage it causes.
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Water is the Problem not Oil

We are obsessed with the oil crisis. So much so that we fail to see other problems that face us in the near future. For example, what about fresh drinking water. If nothing is done soon, the world will be in crisis. Even countries with cold climates, in Europe, are facing a shortage of potable water because of the high population density. As people become Westernized they consume more water. They change from bathing when they can, to having showers every day.

Production oil also impacts on the availability of water. it takes 2.5 liters of water to produce every liter of oil. Even growing bio fuels puts pressure on water, with a thousand liters of water needed to make a liter of bio fuel. The modern way of life is water "heavy":

Wealthy people use 3,000 liters of water each day to live their lives. More drought in the world is putting prices of everything up. When water gets short it does so locally. Moving water from one place to another in bulk is problematical. In the short term it is possible, but in the longer term it is not. Food production will fall behind what is needed over the next two decades if nothing is done.

The oil crisis and carbon pollution are problems but a shortage of water will hurt most of all.

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Fuel From Enzymes Feeding on Plant Waste

There is hope yet that people will reduce their use of fossil fuel. CSIRO is working with universities to make biofuels from enzyme interaction with plant waste. The product will be low-emission. It will not divert resources from food production because only unwanted plant material will be used.

The mere growing of food crops will balance out the carbon dioxide pushed into the environment by using such fuels. Growing plants absorb carbon dioxide thus keeping it out of the atmosphere. More profit for the farmer from this by-product is a good thing because it will encourage planting of more crops.

With oil running out it is paramount to find other ways of creating fuel. Enzymes that will do this have been identified by CSIRO. The research body's target sector is transport, freight movers. Trucking causes a third of the toxic gases emitted into the environment.
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