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Damage From Hurricanes and Tornadoes Still Not Foreseen

Natural disasters on this planet cause human pain and suffering. This includes financial loss from destroyed properties. The science in forecasting such events is still developing. Tornadoes are very unpredictable. Hurricanes move slower; yet the amount of damage is still an unknown quantity.

The whole history of the US has included repeated "attacks" by hurricanes and tornadoes. Tracking of these events began in 1873 with the first hurricane warning by the U.S. Army Signal Corps. Advances were made in understanding flooding from storm surges. This did not prevent the most destructive hurricane of 1900 hitting without warning killing 12,000 citizens.

In 1943 a pilot was sent into the eye of a hurricane. This marked the beginning of an intensive period of study into natural weather events. Ultimately, hurricane forecast models were developed. The 1960s saw the first use of satellites. In 1975 the Saffir-Simpson scale rating hurricane strength of one to five was formulated by two scientists. Consequently, the number of lives lost fell. Twenty three people died during Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The amount of damage remained high - $26 billion. Building better levees after Hurricane Katrina of 2005 only resulted in flooding of regions further along the coast during Hurricane Isaac.

Predicting the paths of hurricanes and tornadoes is improving. There seems to be little hope of reducing property damage. The is a difficult conundrum to accept. Even Mankind cannot overcome every problem.

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Science

Views on Climate Change Has Altered in the US

The common view on climate change (CC) has shifted. This is due to the shocking weather in the US over the last few years. A survey of respondents at Yale University shows those who believe that global warming is happening has increased from 57 per cent in 2010 to 66 per cent currently.

People with common views have been identified:

Alarmed - 13%
Concerned - 26%
Cautious - 29%
Dismissive - 10%
Disengaged - 6%
Doubtful - 15%

These figures were obtained in 2011, a year before the Yale study which noted the changes as follows:

Alarmed - 13%
Concerned - 26%
Cautious - 34%
Dismissive - 10%
Disengaged - 2%
Doubtful - 15%

Other important opinions in each group include:

Alarmed - 57% = Extremely sure CC is happening
Dismissive - 94% = Strongly dstrust Pres. Obama
........"....- 70% = Strongly distrust climate scientists
All Respondents - 58% = US could afford to act on CC
........"..........- 79% = Solar & wind power are answers

People have to directly "live" dramatic change in weather for their view to alter. This is the experience in the US and it is probably the same elsewhere. As bad weather occurrences become permanent the global common opinion will be that damage has been done to the world's climate by human activity.

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Science

Global Warming But Floods in Australia!

There is something strange going on with the weather. Despite reports telling us that Australia is becoming drier we are getting more rain than ever. They say that global warming will make it rain more but water will evaporate faster.

In Britain they may have to set water restrictions because it is raining less. Holding water in dams in Australia at the moment is a silly idea. With La Nina seemingly fixed off Australia's coast more and more rain is predicted. Some east coast towns, many inland, have had three house-destroying floods in three years.

The poles are melting. We know this. Yet long-term predictions about future weather for different countries is like water divining. It seems to be right, though the truth will be known only by what actually eventuates.

If the sea does rise and Australia still gets flooding rains people will abandon low, flood-prone regions permanently. There are only so many times you can repair a house. Australia will become what it has been in the past - hundreds of small islands. With new ports planned in this country to export more coal to the world this possibility becomes a probability.

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Climate

Venus Orbit Not Constant

It is presumed that planets are changing orbital speed at exceedingly slow rates and it will take millions of years for any significant alteration in the "balance" of orbits in the solar system. This theory has recently been confounded.

Venus was thought to be in a fixed orbit of 243.0185 days, but when astronomers went looking for it, it was found 20 kilometers further back than it should have been. Calculations showed the orbit had slowed by 6.5 minutes.

This will mean that computer computations will have to be altered for future planetary probes to Venus. This is a drastic rethink for scientists. For some reason Venus is affected more by fierce weather conditions and planetary gravitational interaction than other planets.

There could be a simpler explanation. Venus could be travelling at different rates in its orbit due to getting close to other planets. It could be a normal slow down period.

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Astronomy

Climate Model Scientists Are in Decline

Climate models are presumed to be far too complicated for the layman to understand so they are left to the experts. However, the models save lives and valuable infrastructure. The complicated lines of code make predictions about future weather patterns.

Just a few decades ago weather could not be forecast for two days ahead. Currently, five day forecasts are common and they are reliable. Even seasonal outlooks are treated as valid. For examples, we have been told in Queensland that there will be a wet summer.

The all-seeing weather bureau is counted on to provide information about strong winds, hailstorms, cyclones and even the direction of forest fires.

To get an accurate prediction, up to date and correct data must be fed into the models. Computers are getting larger all the time and more complex models are being formulated. This is a complex job. Scientists need to draw on many specialized fields in physics, mathematics and computer science. No university offers a course teaching all these. Consequently, such gifted individuals must be sought rather than taught. The number of climate experts is declining.

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Meteorology

Beware the Ozone

Ten years ago the ozone layer was a major topic. "The ozone is decreasing," headlines proclaimed. Then, it was just as quickly forgotten. It may not be growing so much but the ozone layer is still causing problems. The weather has been altered. Wet and dry extremes are the result. Desalination programs have been put on the backburner for now. They will be needed soon as the cycle swings back to dry.

The ozone hole shifts high-altitude wind circulation southward. Most notable for Australia has been the movement of the Southern Hemisphere jet stream to the south. This has severe effects. For example, in the north Britain has got very cold winters in recent years due to blocking of the Northern stream. Estimates are that Australia's weather has changed by a magnitude of 35 per cent. More rain has been brought here. With the impact from greenhouse gases this water evaporates very quickly, so the overall impact is dryness.

With the combination of ozone, greenhouse gases and El Nino the weather has become chaotic for Australia. Chlorofluorocarbon reduction has been successful. Nonetheless, we should not become complacent. Damage still persists in the Arctic. Besides, greenhouse gas emissions is doing more damage now than the depleted ozone. Australians need to consider the country as a whole. Eastern states are now soaking in water. Western Australia, however, is in drought.

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Science

Good Day Sea Lions

"I think it's going to be a nice day."

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