Showing posts with label floods. Show all posts
Showing posts with label floods. Show all posts

Hot La Niñas Will be Normal

We are getting very hot conditions with flooding. This is seen by many as unusual. Australia has very hot dry weather followed by cooler wet weather in its regular pattern. There is a 100 year cycle in El Niño and La Niña events.  In other words severity peaks every century.

Australia is currently in a transition period.  The La Niña could continue or it could change to El Niño.  There is presently a lot of rain. Oddly there is also a drought inland. If it were an El Niño cycle things would be a lot worse. It seems global warming is making La Niña years very hot.

Australia is now getting hot La Niñas along with very hot El Niños. This is bad for the whole world because all continents are affected by weather in the Pacific Ocean.

Some El Niños reach a critical temperature with dry periods being severe. Global warming means that more of them will go over this critical point. The average of extreme El Niños has been one in twenty years.

Australians fear hot dry periods. This was the reason for Queensland's over-investment in bringing water to Brisbane. Now many say it was money wasted, but in the future this capital outlay could pay for itself. The hot dry weather will return and 40 degree days could go on for weeks.
Climate by Ty Buchanan
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El Niño Predicted a Year in Advance

The world is in a crisis of bad weather. Extremes of climate are becoming regular phenomena. While coastal eastern Australia is getting unprecedented levels of rain. inland there is a drought. We have a drought even though El Niño has not been in effect for years. It could be said that the rain on the coast is caused by La Nina. This does not explain "the dry" inland. Where once weather could be clearly predicted by the El Niño/La Niña cycle, this is no longer the case.

Improvement in weather forecasting now helps in knowing a year in advance whether El Niño or La Niña will be dominant. An El Niño is due. The US would be pleased to get some relief from damaging drought and fires. Australia's last drought was severe. The Queensland government invested heavily in water catchment and storage. When La Niña arrived the government was condemned and even ridiculed for "wasting" money. At the time the investment was deemed necessary by government and constituents alike.

Knowing what will happen a year in advance and preparing for the consequences are not ordinarily done. We usually take action after the fact. There is a lot of inertia out there. People have short memories. When El Niño arrives grass pastures will turn to dust and water rationing will return as well. Australia has historically experienced climatic extremes. This will not change.
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Conservation
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Global Warming But Floods in Australia!

There is something strange going on with the weather. Despite reports telling us that Australia is becoming drier we are getting more rain than ever. They say that global warming will make it rain more but water will evaporate faster.

In Britain they may have to set water restrictions because it is raining less. Holding water in dams in Australia at the moment is a silly idea. With La Nina seemingly fixed off Australia's coast more and more rain is predicted. Some east coast towns, many inland, have had three house-destroying floods in three years.

The poles are melting. We know this. Yet long-term predictions about future weather for different countries is like water divining. It seems to be right, though the truth will be known only by what actually eventuates.

If the sea does rise and Australia still gets flooding rains people will abandon low, flood-prone regions permanently. There are only so many times you can repair a house. Australia will become what it has been in the past - hundreds of small islands. With new ports planned in this country to export more coal to the world this possibility becomes a probability.
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Climate
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Climate Model Scientists Are in Decline

Climate models are presumed to be far too complicated for the layman to understand so they are left to the experts. However, the models save lives and valuable infrastructure. The complicated lines of code make predictions about future weather patterns.

Just a few decades ago weather could not be forecast for two days ahead. Currently, five day forecasts are common and they are reliable. Even seasonal outlooks are treated as valid. For examples, we have been told in Queensland that there will be a wet summer.

The all-seeing weather bureau is counted on to provide information about strong winds, hailstorms, cyclones and even the direction of forest fires.

To get an accurate prediction, up to date and correct data must be fed into the models. Computers are getting larger all the time and more complex models are being formulated. This is a complex job. Scientists need to draw on many specialized fields in physics, mathematics and computer science. No university offers a course teaching all these. Consequently, such gifted individuals must be sought rather than taught. The number of climate experts is declining.
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Meteorology
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Beware the Ozone

Ten years ago the ozone layer was a major topic. "The ozone is decreasing," headlines proclaimed. Then, it was just as quickly forgotten. It may not be growing so much but the ozone layer is still causing problems. The weather has been altered. Wet and dry extremes are the result. Desalination programs have been put on the backburner for now. They will be needed soon as the cycle swings back to dry.

The ozone hole shifts high-altitude wind circulation southward. Most notable for Australia has been the movement of the Southern Hemisphere jet stream to the south. This has severe effects. For example, in the north Britain has got very cold winters in recent years due to blocking of the Northern stream. Estimates are that Australia's weather has changed by a magnitude of 35 per cent. More rain has been brought here. With the impact from greenhouse gases this water evaporates very quickly, so the overall impact is dryness.

With the combination of ozone, greenhouse gases and El Nino the weather has become chaotic for Australia. Chlorofluorocarbon reduction has been successful. Nonetheless, we should not become complacent. Damage still persists in the Arctic. Besides, greenhouse gas emissions is doing more damage now than the depleted ozone. Australians need to consider the country as a whole. Eastern states are now soaking in water. Western Australia, however, is in drought.
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Science
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